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上個月的民調指出，全球氣候上升有明確證據的美國民眾人數，從去年4月的71%降至57%。懷疑程度上升是全面性的，但共和黨人增加的幅度最為明顯，半數以上認為全球暖化並沒有明確證據。只有兩個族群對全球氣候問題變得更擔心：自由派民主黨人與30歲以下的選民。

這表示對美國人來說，氣候變遷議題引起的分裂漸趨嚴重，兩方認為對方是錯的。這正是在推動環保議題時最不需要的東西。對部分美國環保人士而言，情況並不糟。有人指出，許多美國人想少用石化燃料，原因不是氣候變遷；衰退轉移了民眾的焦點，但一定不會永遠如此。

而在較注重環保的歐洲，衰退也拉低民眾對全球暖化的擔憂程度。視氣候變遷為全球最嚴重問題的歐盟居民，從去年春天的62%降至50%。澳洲似乎出現根本性的轉變，願意承受「重大成本」以對抗全球暖化的人，從06年68%，降至去年60%，今年更降至48%。

英國政府最近收到的研究指出，光譜的兩邊，一邊是環保人士，另一邊則抱持懷疑或是認為自己窮到沒空管的人；而在中間地帶，約有半數選民似乎同意氣候變遷是個問題，但只有部分人認為需要強力措施。

英國人希望政府能提出明確計畫和時間表，也願意參與其中，但他們害怕先有概念再談具體作法，以及把所有責任都放到民眾身上的政策。綜合觀之，民眾只要相信危機近在眼前，就會願意作出犧牲，但他們還沒被說服，也想確保責任會平均分擔。（黃維德譯）

IF THE forthcoming United Nations meeting in Copenhagen truly is a precious chance to save the planet from rising seas and advancing deserts, then one might expect voters all over the world to be egging on their leaders to make bold decisions.

That is the impression created by a wave of eye-catching demonstrations—such as the globally co-ordinated protest on October 24th that called, ambitiously, for carbon concentration in the atmosphere to be kept at 350 parts per million (see above). But awkwardly, there are clear signs in several democracies of sentiment moving in the other direction.

Perhaps the most astonishing evidence of a rise in climate-change scepticism was revealed by a poll published last month by the Pew Research Centre, based in Washington, DC. In the United States the share of citizens who thought there was solid evidence of rising global temperatures had plunged to 57% from 71% in April 2008. The share blaming rising temperatures on human activities had fallen over that time from 47% to 36%.

An uptick in scepticism was evident across a wide spectrum, but it was extra-sharp among Republicans, including those near the political centre. A majority of all Republicans (57%) saw no hard evidence of global warming, and among moderate and liberal Republicans, believers in the phenomenon had tumbled, as a share, from 69% to 41%. Only two groups have been getting more worried about the global climate: liberal Democrats, and voters aged under 30.

What the poll suggests is that, for Americans, climate change is becoming more divisive: one of those touchstone issues, like abortion and the death penalty, in which the opposing camps see one another as not just mistaken, but bad. That is exactly the opposite of what would be needed if, now or in future, an administration wanted to rally the nation behind the idea of sacrifices for the sake of posterity.

For some green-minded Americans, the picture is not quite so gloomy. As Carl Pope, director of the Sierra Club, a conservation group, points out, many Americans want to burn less fossil fuel for reasons other than climate change, including to clean up the air and cut the country's dependence on energy imports. The recession has taken people's minds off climate change, but surely not for good.

In Europe, where sentiment is generally greener than it is in America, the economic downturn has also displaced warming on people's worry list. A poll published....go on

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