6/20-6/23的經濟數據消息
6/20
美5月新屋開工自150.6萬戶衰退2.1%至147.4萬戶,略高於預期147.2萬戶,4個月來首度下降,然建築許可則由145.7萬戶上升3%至150.1萬戶,高於預期147.3萬戶,暗示5月新屋開工數或將回升。建築許可上揚,主反映上月跌至10年低點後之反彈,其中,複合住宅許可升至年來最高,獨棟建築許可則降至1997/7來最低。整體來說,數據仍處歷史低檔,近期利率上揚,房市恐仍受衝擊,偏弱態勢不變。數據公佈後,美債漲,EUR/USD跌後回揚。
德6月ZEW經濟人氣指數由24降至20.3,低於預期29,當期指數則由88升至88.7,高於市調88,再創1991年來最高。歐元區6月經濟人氣指數由22.3降至19,低於預期26,主受股債雙跌衝擊,然整體來說,歐元區經濟結構性持續改善,基本面尚屬健全。數據出爐後,EUR/USD跌,歐債漲。
6/21
Dallas Fed總裁Fisher表示,美房市修正持續時間,可能比多數分析師預期要長,但預估政府將上休1Q GDP成長率至1%左右,且2Q經濟成長步伐加快。物價方面,他指出貨幣決策者尚不確定,全球相對較高經濟成長率對保持通膨受控可能產生之影響,雖近期數據顯示通膨呈現令人鼓舞跡象,然放鬆警惕仍為時尚早。
BOE會議記錄顯示,委員以5-4決定維持利率於5.5%,總裁King及其他3名委員傾向升息1碼至5.75%,總裁於投票中告負,為10年來第二次,但支持按兵不動委員則表示,當時升息將令市場措手不及,或導致殖利率曲線不當上升,且目前個人債務水準已高,房市及消費者支出已出現放緩跡象,因此贊成維持利率不變。記錄公佈後,GBP/USD跌,英債跌後拉回。
展望後市,近來美鮮有重要經濟數據公佈,歐元區雖缺乏爆發性經濟數據支撐,然ECB官員持續鷹派言論,顯示ECB年內仍有升息空間,BOE短期內升息氣氛加重,短線GBP/USD、EUR/USD下修低點已現,暫可望回揚,惟Fed短期內不致降息,美債殖利率下檔有限,GBP/USD、EUR/USD亦不至突破前波高點,加上若美經濟數據意外高於預期,或美殖利率再度攀升,則美元氣勢將再受拉抬。
6/22
美5月領先指標成長0.3%,高於預期0.2%,年率則由負轉正,較去年同期成長0.3%,2006/10來最佳,主因股市上揚和失業人數下降,顯示美2Q進入3Q之際,經濟可望持續溫和成長。其中,10項指標中有5項呈正貢獻,除股價與初領取失業金人數由31.8萬人降至30.4萬人外,尙包含建築許可、交貨速度與消費者預期。
6月費城製造業PMI由4.2躍升至18,高於預期7,2005/4來最高,主因企業消化庫存後,新訂單增加帶動生產。其中,新訂單升至2006/3來最高,對未來預期則跌至1月來最低。數據公佈後,美債、EUR/USD跌。
今德IFO或跟隨ZEW走勢,估自高點滑落,不利EUR/USD。
Economic data to be released this week will be a microcosm of recent trends, and therefore an important opportunity to test the current optimism that the economy has picked itself off the floor after a weak first quarter, analysts said.
In the first three months of the year, gross domestic product slowed to a crawl.
First-quarter GDP will probably be revised up to a 0.8% annualized growth rate from the previous estimate of 0.6%. The revision will be announced on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.
Housing data were weak in the first quarter, which was not much of a surprise. But economists grew concerned with hints that businesses were becoming cautious and cutting their spending.
Fortunately, business spending has turned around in the last two months, fueling optimism about the outlook.
For the second quarter, growth is expected to snap back to 3.3%.
Economists will be watching closely to see if this is a "sustained improvement in growth or whether it is an aberration," said Tim McGee, chief economist at US Trust Corp.
Housing data
The week will get underway with the housing data, which are expected to remain downbeat.
"The summer is going to be a season of discontent with respect to housing activity," said Michael Gregory, senior economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns.
Existing home sales are expected to fall to a 5.90 million seasonally adjusted annual rate in May from 5.99 million in April, as a result of a 3.2% drop in the pending home sales index last month. The data will be released by the National Association of Realtors on Monday at 10 a.m. Eastern. Existing home sales fell 2.6% in April. Inventory jumped to an 8.4 month supply in April, the largest in 15 years.
New home sales are expected to fall 4.2% to a 940 million seasonally adjusted annual pace, after soaring 16% in the previous month, according to the MarketWatch survey of economists. The median sales prices fell 10.9% in April, the biggest drip since 1970.
The Commerce Department will release the data on Tuesday at 10 a.m. Eastern.
Durable goods data
After the housing data will come the May data for durable goods orders, the crucial report on business spending.
Durable goods orders are expected to fall after two straight monthly gains, due in large part to lower orders from Boeing Co.
Durable goods orders are expected to fall 1.8% in May after a 0.8% gain in April. Excluding transportation, orders are expected to inch higher.
"This is consistent with recovering business capital spending, but not booming spending," said Gregory.
"Things have stopped looking quite as bouncy," McGee agreed.
The Commerce Department will release December durable-goods data Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time.
Consumer confidence, spending data
Also this week, both consumer confidence surveys will be released.
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index, due out on Tuesday, is expected to fall to about 105 in June from 108 in May, economists say.
The University of Michigan sentiment survey, due on Friday, is expected to rise slightly to 84 from mid-month levels of 83.7, the lowest level since last August.
The dip in confidence is not expected to translate into weaker spending, although consumers have tightened their belts over the past few months. May data on consumer spending should show a 0.7% gain. Income gains were probably healthy at 0.6%.
The income and spending numbers will be released Friday at 8:30 a.m.
The report will include the Fed's favorite measure on inflation, the core index of the personal consumption expenditure index. Core inflation probably rose 0.2% again, which would lower the year-over-year gain to 1.9%, into the Fed's semi-official comfort zone
《你是我的眼》大跌後的大盤操作策略