June 10, 2007

The global sell-off of government bonds was triggered by foreign interest-rate hikes and worr

PIMCO chief investment officer Bill Gross said global growth will likely keep bond prices under pressure, lifting yields further, over the next three to five years.
Global growth and rising interest rates in Asia and Europe have put the U.S. bond market under pressure, lifting yields to levels last seen nearly a year ago. U.S. economic data, including falling jobless claims and a slight uptick in May retail sales Thursday, further pressured bonds.
近期公佈之經濟數據讓市場對美國FED於2007年一定降息之預期大幅降低,加上歐洲國家近日利率政策齊唱高調,更使全球利率走向重回揚升軌道;美國公債殖利率曲線(Yield Curve)在呈現負斜率近一年後,於昨日正式轉正,更加突顯經濟景氣於2007年Q1拉回後的反彈氣勢可能超過市場原先預期,原先市場預期FED將於今年稍後調降利率之期望迅速減弱,美國10年期債券殖利率訊速回升至5.0%以上。

若由近期國濟債市及利率環境對照國內市場來看,台灣債市殖利率未來恐怕仍將持續面臨上修的命運,此對持有大部位國債之金控或金融類股將是相當不利的,對過去兩年飽嘗雙卡呆帳之銀行而言,真是屋漏偏逢連夜雨呀!

The global sell-off of government bonds was triggered by foreign interest-rate hikes and worries that the U.S. is likely to hike rates soon.
The selling pressure seen on Thursday was intensified by the hedging strategies of many mortgage-backed securities portfolio managers that force them to unload Treasurys. In addition, there is a trend among foreign central banks to diversify away from long-term Treasury notes.
However, Tony Crescenzi, fixed-income strategist at Miller Tabak, in a research note Friday, said that recent market trends may show that "concerns about Fed rate hikes are not serious."
"If they [concerns] were serious, short-term rates would be rising to adjust for possible increases in the fed funds rate," Crescenzi wrote. "The absence of concrete fear over a Fed rate hike should limit weakness in Treasury prices and end the rapid and disorderly decline in prices."

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